President Erdogan’s chances of a majority in parliament may lay with joining a coalition

By Middle East Affairs

President Erdogan says that if AK Party doesn’t secure a majority in the election, they would consider forming a coalition, but the chances of that are very low.

Polls and public opinion so far are predicting the election to be closer than imagined back in April when President Erdogan called the snap elections. There is a real possibility that the president and his party stands to lose their majority in the 600 seat parliament, this would mean a second runoff election for the presidency.

In an interview with Kral FM radio on Wednesday, Turkey’s president said, “If it is under 300 (seats), then there could be a search for a coalition.” He also insisted that the chances of that happening are very very low.

Political uncertainty has also affected the rate of the lira, with some Turks believing that the president is manipulating the rates to scare people into voting for him. Only time will tell if the rates of the lira go up, soon after the election.

Should President Erdogan lose his majority in parliament, his new executive presidency would be in a deadlock with parliament, restricting his power and limiting the decisions he would be able to make under his executive presidency.

The executive presidency was voted upon in last year’s hotly contested election that President Erdogan called for demanding a change to the constitution, a decision that many secular Turks found suspicious and untrustworthy, fearing for the future of their nation.

Prior to elections, the AK party formed an alliance with the nationalist MHP. Other opposition parties also formed an alliance hoping to improve their chances of securing seats in parliament.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) did not seek any alliances, however, they are the party that most worries President Erdogan. If the HDP is able to secure a minimum of 10% of the votes, they will gain entry into parliament, that will most likely diminish the AK party’s chances of a majority. If they do not secure 10% then the AK gains their seats.

After last year’s changes to the constitution, parliament seats will increase to 600 from 550.

In the 15 years since its formation, the AK party has always held the majority in elections. It has only lost once in the June 2015 election, which President Erdogan fixed by calling for follow up election which ensured AKP’s win.

Devlet Bahceli, the leader of the MHP said that another election is a real possibility if the alliance with the AKP doesn’t constitute a majority in parliament.


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